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Most famously, the 538 polls gave Trump a ~30% chance of winning in 2016, which was MUCH higher than everybody else. At the time, Twitter was heavily accusing Nate Silver and 538 of deliberately manipulating their model results so that their website would generate more clicks due to a close election.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. 538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis. Oh this is why Biden's approval suddenly dropped over the last week on the aggregate for 538; I noticed Rasmussen being gone from the latest polls for approval and I guess I know why.
Does this discredit 538 and Nate Silver, or is this election an anomaly and can we go back to trusting them in future elections? This year, I was frequently checking (and comparing) both fivethirtyeight and NYT's forecasts.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond.
20K subscribers in the fivethirtyeight community. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election…
20K subscribers in the fivethirtyeight community. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election…
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. Nate says he is shutting down 538 if polls are democrat biased 2 more times. I am listening to the latest model talk and someone else confirm what I just heard. Galen nailed him down, with nate saying he will admit there is a ...
March Madness Forecast? Sports. I relied on the 538 bracket forecast for over a decade. My 538-based brackets were usually in the top 85th+ percentile nationally, and I won several local contests. I assuming it will not return this year.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond.
[Nate Silver] This is the first time since 2004 (!) that the Democratic candidate is down in presidential polls on a sustained basis and yet it's been like 100% predictable which Twitter personalities Suddenly Have A Lot of Questions About The Polls.