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Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
ABC News/The Washington Post polls are ranked second in FiveThirtyEight’s list of best pollsters after the New York Times/Siena College, which has yet to release a national survey on a Harris vs ...
The latest poll (12 August) from Morning Consult of 11,778 registered voters shows a 3-point lead for Harris; and Harris has not trailed behind Trump in a single of the pollster’s surveys since ...
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
Nate Silver. Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. [ 2]
The first general election debate between the major candidates of the 2024 United States presidential election was sponsored by CNN and attended by presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump on June 27, 2024. Biden withdrew from the race in July, and Kamala Harris was selected to replace him, while ...
When voters in the survey were shown a hypothetical ballot that included independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, an advantage outside the margin of ...
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided ). The dashed line marks Biden's withdrawal from the race. Source of poll aggregation.