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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast. All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris. đź•’ Last update: 10 a.m., Saturday, September 28. Quite a lot of polling for the Friday afternoon / Saturday morning wrapover period. But nothing to really change the model’s view of the race.
Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 55-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes,...
Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Silver, a renowned polling expert, statistician, and author of the “Silver Bulletin,” has the odds of Harris winning at 53% and Trump at 47%, which he notes, “is awfully close to 50-50.”
Prognosticator Nate Silver on Tuesday shared dat a that showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in the national polls average by almost three full percentage...
The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.
An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
V ice President Kamala Harris is favored to win four critical swing states against former President Donald Trump, according to Nate Silver 's presidential model. With the presidential election a ...
Nate Silver believes that Donald Trump is the slight favorite to defeat Kamala Harris this November going into Labor Day weekend.