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Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [2] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [ 2 ]
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Cornel West. Local regression of polling between Harris, Trump, Kennedy, West and Stein conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided ). The dashed line is when Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.
June 30, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024. ^ "New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: 60% of Americans say Biden is not fit for another term as president after disastrous debate — yet 2024 contest with Trump remains too close to call". Yahoo News. July 2, 2024.
June 27, 2024 at 11:16 AM. Less than 50 percent of Democrats in a Gallup poll released Thursday say they are happy that President Biden is their party’s presumptive presidential nominee ...
Seven in 10 Americans say they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the upcoming presidential election, according to a Gallup poll released Monday. The poll, conducted April 1-22, was ...
Historical precedent suggests the election performances of third-party and independent candidates rarely live up to their pre-election polling. Polls show substantial support for candidates like ...
Poll source Date(s) administered Jimmy Carter (D) Ronald Reagan (R) Eugene McCarthy (I) Other Undecided Margin Harris [1]: January 5–14, 1976 33% 50%
Both of them ended their polling in October, well before the 1948 election. Gallup was unequivocal in reporting his final pre-election poll that year, writing: “Dewey will win the Presidential ...