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Think of an instagram picture. The more filters you put on it, the less detailed the image becomes. So when 538 are applies algorithms to the polls to make them more accurate than the poll itself, they are just adding statistical noise. Even if 538's numbers are more correct in 2024, it is because a broken clock is right twice a day.
the election night one where Trump won was particularly memorable. Especially if you listen to it after/before hearing the NYT's politics podcast recorded literally as Trump is announced the winner. Nate is sleep deprived and is repeating how the model predicted this and everyone underrated Trump's chances. NYT react like it was a million to ...
What your opinion on the 538 Politics podcast sans Nate Silver? News & Current Affairs. Its been a while now since Nate (and his model) left 538. Since then I have noticed a pretty big shift in the show. I listen to a bunch of politics podcasts, and 538's niche previously was that it was data driven. Mathematics was what drove the discussions.
Fivethirtyeight weights polls based on past performance and methodology. And they also include polls from over two weeks ago, but their weighting depends on the quality and quantity of recent polling. TL;DR: RCP only averages polls over the last two weeks. Fivethirtyeight uses fancy math to make their best guess based on available polling. 34.
There’s no reason 538 couldn’t be more about democracy and less about horse race politics. Meta I’m a pretty religious 538 politics podcast listener but I’ve grown quite saddened about the degree to which the podcast revolves around what polls say about horse race politics rather than how horse race politics is related to the polity.
538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis. Moderator Announcement Read More ». Years overdue. On behalf of the group College Republicans United, Rasmussen asked Arizona voters who they voted for in Lake’s race and, after weighting the results to exit polls — which is unusual — declared that, contrary to the certified tally, Kari Lake ...
r/fivethirtyeight. r/fivethirtyeight. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. MembersOnline. •. theLogicality. ADMIN MOD. 538 website redesigned to integrate into ABC News. abcnews.go.com Open.
to me the GOP really needs to lean into the rust belt populism stuff if they want to do better in states like ohio and pennsylvania. look at how well j.d. vance did, especially in comparison to a bunch of other candidates in that midterm. neither party can be an absurd monolith of pure ideological unity if it wants to survive in areas like the rust belt, the south (looking at joe manchin), the ...
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and ...
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. 538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis. Oh this is why Biden's approval suddenly dropped over the last week on the aggregate for 538; I noticed Rasmussen being gone from the latest polls for approval and I guess I know why.