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LAST UPDATED Oct. 1. Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 56-in-100 chance of winning the majority of...
An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast.
Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us...
In a nutshell what we're doing is running two separate versions of the 538 forecast, each producing 10,000 simulations of each party's vote share in each state.
For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately end up with a set of several thousand potential outcomes for the election. 1. Calculate polling averages.