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Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
Online. 538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. [ 2] Founder Nate Silver left in 2023, taking the rights to his forecasting model with him to his website Silver Bulletin. [ 3][ 4][ 5] 538's new owner Disney hired G ...
The latest poll (12 August) from Morning Consult of 11,778 registered voters shows a 3-point lead for Harris; and Harris has not trailed behind Trump in a single of the pollster’s surveys since ...
Since departing FiveThirtyEight, Silver has been publishing on his Substack blog Silver Bulletin. [3] Silver was named one of the world's 100 most influential people by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in forty-nine of the fifty states in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. [4]
When voters in the survey were shown a hypothetical ballot that included independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, an advantage outside the margin of ...
2024. 2028 →. v. t. e. This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Democratic primaries for the 2024 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. The polls included are among ...
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Cornel West. [] Local regression of polling between Harris, Trump, Kennedy, West and Stein conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided ). The dashed line is when Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...