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This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election. The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. The states considered to be not strongly leaning in either direction are Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico ...
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided ). The dashed line marks Biden's withdrawal from the race. Source of poll aggregation.
Since then, 19 presidential elections have occurred in which a candidate was elected or reelected without gaining a majority of the popular vote. [4] Since the 1988 election, the popular vote of presidential elections was decided by single-digit margins, the longest since states began popularly electing presidents in the 1820s. [5]
The polling average curated by ABC’s 538, which was last updated on Aug. 18, shows Harris with a 2.6 point lead against Trump, 46.4% to 43.8%. Silver Bulletin, the independent site of former 538 ...
The RealClearPolitics poll average has Harris over Trump by less than one percent, while the 538 poll aggregate has Harris leading by more than two percent.. On Thursday, Donald Trump held a press ...
To win a U.S. presidential election, you don’t necessarily need to win the popular vote (i.e., the combined tally across all 50 states). You need to stockpile electoral votes by finishing first ...
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...
Nate Silver. Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. [ 2]