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What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast? We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
Republicans are slightly favored to win the Senate. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the Senate most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
The latest. Last updated Nov. 8, 2022. Following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, there appeared to be a real chance that Democrats could keep control of the House. However, Republicans regained much of the advantage they had earlier in the summer.
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.
Each party's majority chances include scenarios where the Senate is evenly split and that party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls 😬 — the forecast will get less uncertain.
95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here.
FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series.