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Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
Representatives were elected from all 435 U.S. congressional districts across each of the 50 states to serve in the 118th United States Congress, as well as 5 non-voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited insular areas.
Nate Silver. Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. [ 2]
As for Trump, his rating in Pennsylvania is now at 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable (-3 net rating). When the three battleground state polls are combined, 46% of likely voters hold a favorable ...
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...
As of the 2020 election, the incumbent party has won the popular vote on 12 of the 14 occasions when it achieved a net gain of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives compared to the previous midterm elections (losing the Electoral College in 2000, with the exceptions being in 1860 and 1952). [15]
In the United States, the Electoral College is the group of presidential electors that is formed every four years during the presidential election for the sole purpose of voting for the president and vice president. The process is described in Article II of the U.S. Constitution. [ 1] The number of electoral votes a state has equals its number ...