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Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [citation needed][dubious – discuss], who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
That is, a prediction of 80% that correctly proved true would receive a score of ln(0.8) = −0.22. This same prediction also assigns 20% likelihood to the opposite case, and so if the prediction proves false, it would receive a score based on the 20%: ln(0.2) = −1.6. The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be ...
Live scores. Live scores is a type of service offered by many sports-related websites and broadcasters as well as online sports betting operators. The idea of live scores is to provide real time information about sports results from various disciplines. Live scores are usually free and are very popular among sports betting enthusiasts, as they ...
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Paul the Octopus. Paul the Octopus (26 January 2008 [ 1] – 26 October 2010) was a common octopus who predicted the results of international association football matches. Accurate predictions in the 2010 World Cup brought him worldwide attention as an animal oracle . During divinations, Paul's keepers would present him with two food-containing ...
Forecast skill. In the fields of forecasting and prediction, forecasting skill or prediction skill is any measure of the accuracy and/or degree of association of prediction to an observation or estimate of the actual value of what is being predicted (formally, the predictand); it may be quantified as a skill score. [ 1]
It was proposed by Glenn W. Brier in 1950. [ 1] The Brier score can be thought of as a cost function. More precisely, across all items in a set of N predictions, the Brier score measures the mean squared difference between: The predicted probability assigned to the possible outcomes for item i. The actual outcome.
Standard score. In statistics, the standard score is the number of standard deviations by which the value of a raw score (i.e., an observed value or data point) is above or below the mean value of what is being observed or measured. Raw scores above the mean have positive standard scores, while those below the mean have negative standard scores.