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This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head.
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter.
Trump now has 24 states (and one congressional district in Maine) either solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction, totaling 219 electoral votes, 51 votes short of the 270 required to win.
This map tracks a Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. No polling is available yet in some less competitive states. In those cases, the Consensus Forecast rating is used. The map automatically updates three times daily. States where the margin is 4% or less are shown as Toss-up.
It takes at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Plot each candidate’s best path to victory on our interactive map below.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Harris wins 58 times out of 100
Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Overall, Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in The New York Times’s average of national polls, while the race remains extraordinarily close in the seven key battleground states. No...
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
This tracker uses the latest national and state-level polls to estimate the range of likely outcomes in each state. Use the buttons to select a winner and see which combinations of states would allow each candidate to reach the 270 electoral college (EC) votes needed to win. Select a state in the table below to see details of local polls.