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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls,...
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 55-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College...
Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.
Currently, 41.4 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of the former president, while 53 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
It's the moment you've all been waiting for: Today, 538 launched our interactive polling averages for the 2024 presidential general election. They show incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump essentially tied in national polls and Trump with a tenuous lead in key swing states.
By Lenny Bronner, Diane Napolitano, Kati Perry and Luis Melgar. What’s changed: Vice President Kamala Harris still leads by two points nationally and her leads in the Midwest have stabilized, but...
538 Forecast Model Relaunches for Harris vs. Trump General Election. August 23, 2024. The forecast starts with a small lead for Harris, but the site notes a wide range of outcomes are ultimately possible. The most recent polls for the 2024 presidential election. Includes links to all available 2024 polls and polling averages.