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At least Rasmussen and Trafalgar are consistent from the 2016 and 2020 final results. 2016 Wisconsin was decided by 0.8% 2020 by 0.6% 2024 Trafalgar has Trump by 1 and Rasmussen Harris by 1. 2016 Michigan was decided by .03% 2020 by 2.8% 2024 Trafalgar as it a tie and Rasmussen Harris by 1%
Trafalgar is cooking their polls this cycle to be less Trump favorable without a doubt. I still trust them 6 ways to Sunday over Quinnipiac which has been awful forever 09-18-2024, 01:19 PM
So now we have the Trafalgar Group publishing outlier polls saying Trump is doing much better than Biden compared to most other polls. According to The Hill, "...the Trafalgar group weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the ...
Will this be a repeat of 2016, 2020 when Rep leaning polling outfits like Trafalgar were correct? We'll find out this Nov. However, RCP also mentions the key to accuracy is a pollster ability to estimate voter turnout.
I cannot believe so many people faith in polls after what happened in 2016 with both Trump and Brexit, after the left insisted both would be soundly defeated. That was just a few years ago, but the media needs something to talk about in the 24/7/365 new cycle. The polls have been skewed left at least as far back as 1980, maybe longer.
Originally Posted by john3232 So, let's just say Trump’s strength was not fully accounted for in many polls. I suspect this election it will happen ***2024 Presidential Candidates' Polls*** - Politics and Other Controversies -Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, Conservatives, Liberals, Third Parties, Left-Wing, Right-Wing, Congress ...
Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned. Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Biden wins 49 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100.
Polls in 2022 and most Special ***2024 Presidential Candidates' Polls*** - Politics and Other Controversies -Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, Conservatives, Liberals, Third Parties, Left-Wing, Right-Wing, Congress, President - Page 29 - City-Data Forum
Trafalgar-area historical tornado activity is slightly above Indiana state average. It is 118% greater than the overall U.S. average. On 4/25/1961, a category F4 (max. wind speeds 207-260 mph) tornado 22.1 miles away from the Trafalgar town center injured 7 people and caused between $500,000 and $5,000,000 in damages.
Trump endorsed Blake Masters in Arizona on June 2nd on June 7th suddenly Trafalgar releases a poll showing Blake Masters leading by +5. Trafalgar group rigged polling (voters, Republican, polls, conspiracy) - Elections - City-Data Forum