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What polling says about key voting groups in the 2024 election. The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024...
An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
A new Times/Siena poll found Kamala Harris leading by four percentage points nationally. And in a sign of how dramatically the country’s presidential battlegrounds have realigned in recent years ...
2024 Presidential Election Forecasts. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2024 Presidential forecast.
Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast.