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In statistics, a moving average ( rolling average or running average or moving mean[ 1] or rolling mean) is a calculation to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different selections of the full data set. Variations include: simple, cumulative, or weighted forms. Mathematically, a moving average is a type of convolution.
Moving-average model. In time series analysis, the moving-average model ( MA model ), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. [ 1][ 2] The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable.
The notation ARMA(p, q) refers to the model with p autoregressive terms and q moving-average terms.This model contains the AR(p) and MA(q) models, [5]= + = + =. The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, who used mathematical analysis (Laurent series and Fourier analysis) and statistical inference.
Autoregressive integrated moving average. In statistics and econometrics, and in particular in time series analysis, an autoregressive integrated moving average ( ARIMA) model is a generalization of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. To better comprehend the data or to forecast upcoming series points, both of these models are fitted ...
Autoregressive model. In statistics, econometrics, and signal processing, an autoregressive ( AR) model is a representation of a type of random process; as such, it can be used to describe certain time-varying processes in nature, economics, behavior, etc. The autoregressive model specifies that the output variable depends linearly on its own ...
The faster moving average is a short term moving average. For end-of-day stock markets, for example, it may be 5-, 10- or 25-day period while the slower moving average is medium or long term moving average (e.g. 50-, 100- or 200-day period). A short term moving average is faster because it only considers prices over short period of time and is
Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) is an alternative model in a separate class of exponential smoothing models. As an alternative to GARCH modelling it has some attractive properties such as a greater weight upon more recent observations, but also drawbacks such as an arbitrary decay factor that introduces subjectivity into the ...
Exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing or exponential moving average (EMA) is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time.