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Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 55-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes,...
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and...
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
The gap between Pennsylvania and national polls is opening up again, however: Harris leads by 3.2 points nationally and 1.2 points in PA in our latest averages, suggesting that the Electoral College is still a big net disadvantage for Democrats.
538 has released Senate polling averages for the general election. September 24, 2024. Are Republicans still talking about abortion? Swing-district Republicans downplayed abortion in the 2024 primaries. September 20, 2024. How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024.
49% Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. New post-debate Times/Siena polls in the battlegrounds of Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as in Ohio and Nebraska’s Second Congressional District,...